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Prediction for CME (2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-08T05:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30589/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Earth-directed full halo seen in all coronagraphs. The source is a large eruption from AR 3664, which included two flares seen in SDO AIA 131, an initial M3.5 (S21W10) followed by the main long-duration X1.0 (S22W10) which peaked at 2024-05-08T04:30Z and 2024-05-08T05:09Z respectively. An EUV wave and field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 94/131/171/211 with some surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. This flare+CME combo resulted in a small rise in protons observed at SOHO and GOES, but not enough for a threshold crossing. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T20:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

This simulation includes two halo CMEs which have a combined arrival. These two CMEs have start times (as defined by M2M): 2024-05-08T05:36Z and 2024-05-08T12:24Z. 

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 May 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
...
Region 3664 (S20W15, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) also maintained its delta
configuration and had significant growth in its intermediate and
trailer spots. It is now the largest of the regions, with an overall
areal coverage over 1,000 millionths. This region also produced several
M-class flares and an X1.0 flare at 08/0509 UTC. The X flare was
accompanied by Type II and IV sweeps and a 10.7 cm radio burst. A halo
CME associated with this event is first visible in C2 imagery near
08/0600 UTC. Preliminary modeling efforts showed an arrival time early
on 11 May. However, additional analysis and modeling are ongoing. 

The remaining spotted active regions were stable or in gradual decay and
largely inactive.

Lead Time: 48.72 hour(s)
Difference: -3.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-05-08T15:53Z

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